tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62295794034482053522024-03-13T14:45:40.192+00:00war timerDocumenting our course to World War 3war_timerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06316296277556548428noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6229579403448205352.post-18038172832833823262016-11-25T00:00:00.002+00:002016-11-25T00:01:30.003+00:00Organisational credibilityPopulists and authoritarians weaken or destroy impartial organisations of good governance - because opposing views challenge their legitimacy.<br />
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1. The Office of Budgetary Responsibility published an unfavourable economic forecast, in part driven by Brexit.<br />
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2. The Daily Mail, the second biggest newspaper in the UK, trashed the OBR and its head honcho.<br />
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3. Senior Conservative politicians (Jacob Rees-Mogg, Ian Duncan Smith) joined in the trashing.<br />
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These objectors didn't present a model, predictions from sound economics, or evidence missed by the OBR (lol). <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/24/brexiteers-office-for-budget-responsibility" target="_blank">They just didn't like the message</a>.<br />
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Without strong, impartial organisations informing government, there are fewer checks on authoritarianism. The attack by the Daily Mail went unchallenged by Government.<br />
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The attackers are emboldened.war_timerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06316296277556548428noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6229579403448205352.post-25215201118190106122016-11-24T04:49:00.000+00:002016-11-24T04:49:07.354+00:00Why?Nick McDonald, Labour Councillor for Nottinghan, was the straw that broke my back.<br />
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More precisely, his 3000 word essay on <a href="http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/11/12/the-left-needs-to-regroup-rethink-and-reorganise/" target="_blank">Labour Uncut</a> did. He says, in short:<br />
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<ul>
<li>We're in a new dark age of populism </li>
<li>Trump, Farage and co. are Great Recession fallout</li>
<li>Angry voters don't want far left politics...</li>
<li>...although I understand why the little darlings keep voting for Corbyn</li>
<li>Labour shouldn't superficially chase immigration votes, focus-group style</li>
<li>We need to understand the anger...</li>
<li>...that gave us Trump and Brexit</li>
<li><i>Rapid change!</i></li>
<li>To solve, the Left should harp on about education, technology, economics, infrastructure, tax, blah blah blah blah blah</li>
<li>We failed people. We need to organise, and next time we'll win.</li>
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No Nick. <b>No</b>. Fair does for your Keynesian argument for increased public spending. Now if Labour shouted that in 2008-9, perhaps we wouldn't be in the shit now. Perhaps you did, but Labour - and the Conservatives - didn't. Whatever.<br />
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You want policies of the future? Like the universal basic income, which your idol Owen Smith labelled "not credible"?<br />
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Nick is so clueless it's not even funny. Watching his managerial mind dancing around the cold, hard truth is painful. <b>Labour managerialism is dead</b>. People don't trust you. The left, for selling out. The right, for having the choice of big C conservatism over you. <b>There is no place for your centre-right politics anymore</b>.<br />
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The left was defeated by Reagan and Thatcher. The right grew strong. With the Great Recession, the right's dominance is over. Now people turn to further left- and right-wing politicians. Corbyn's Labour is the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/25/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-leader.html" rel="" target="_blank">largest political party in Europe</a>. Britain voted to leave the centre-right EU. Those are the facts on the ground.<br />
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We've seen this story before. Bumbling, centre-right politicians kowtowing to populism. An economic downturn followed by recovery - for the rich. Deflection of blame from the bankers, to the government, to society's out-groups - with austerity and misery. Hatred piling up on the poor. The old. The young. The social security claimants. Renters. Homeowners. The browns. The non-English speakers. The urbanites. The rurals. The intellectuals.<br />
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Britain is a land with a major newspaper calling judges "Enemies of the People". With a major political party mulling over lists of foreign workers. With citizenship checks everywhere. With tightening internal security. Jokes about Godwin's principle fall flat.<br />
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Nick, you're too late.<br />
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The question for the Left is not how to imagine future glory. <b>It's how to avert, contain, mitigate and protect ourselves against the coming world war</b>.<br />
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Of course, no-one <i>knows</i> there'll be a war. My prior probability is 50% in the next 30 years - which I've chosen to display in the form of a Doomsday clock (<a href="http://thebulletin.org/" target="_blank">inspiration</a>). If events transpire to make war more likely - in my eyes - it'll move closer to midnight. Like Russia's annexation of the Crimea. Events moving the other way push it back. Like, er, Jill Stein's <a href="https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount" target="_blank">recount campaign</a> making Hillary POTUS? (I jest)<br />
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Because this is the issue to discuss <i>now</i>. Not just a possible world war - but all the accompanying nastiness. Monitoring, detention, torture, and genocide of dissidents, intellectuals, Leftists, Muslims, benefit claimants or whatever out-group of the month: nightmare scenarios. That are more likely in this Britain of hate.<br />
<br />war_timerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06316296277556548428noreply@blogger.com0